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投资考虑要素part 1

发布时间:2018-01-21

投资者为什么要投资?不同国家的投资者投资理由通常不同,澳大利亚投资者通常是为了为退休后的生活做打算。澳大利亚老人一般不通过子女的财务支持生活,政府的福利也不足以让老人过上和退休前一样质量的生活,因此老人需要足够的资金进行退休。中国投资者的投资目标更多在于娱乐,投资如同一场金钱游戏,赚大钱是最值得炫耀和庆祝的。虽然投资的初衷不一样,但共同的理由主要是为了获取回报。那么从财务角度来说,投资需要考虑什么呢?首当其中的是货币的时间价值,也就是折旧。假设通胀率为百分之1,那么你手上的货币每年就贬值了百分之1,这百分之一可以看做投资回报的亏损。考虑到通胀的影响,银行设定的储蓄利率通常不同,发达国家通胀一般非常低,甚至可能通货紧缩,因此金钱贬值的速度很慢,甚至不贬值反而升值。而发展中国家,例如中国,每年的通胀都很大,因此人民币在飞速贬值。今天一元可以买一颗糖,明年则需要一块一才可能买一颗糖。由于投资的时候不管买卖都是以货币作为交换,因而交换货币的贬值速度是非常值得考虑的。


其次,系统风险是需要衡量的因素。系统性风险通常影响市场上一切的投资,例如08年金融危机,无论你是投资什么股票,都很大程度上受到了这一次金融冲击的影响,因此系统风险不能忽略。在08年之前,由于美国对房地产市场看好,银行降低借贷门槛,许多金融机构为加速融资推出一系列产品。投资者通过购买此类衍生品向金融机构借钱,金融机构把金钱借给银行,银行借给信用不高的房地产买家进行购房操作,从房地产买家处收取的利息部分还给金融机构,金融机构再将部分利息还给投资者。因为房地产价格在不断向上攀升,当房产买家不能偿还房贷时银行将通过收回房产再将房产卖出去的方式回本。由于大量买家信用级别很低,因此违约情况越发严重,银行不断卖出房产导致房地产市场卖压过重,因而房地产价格开始下降。一旦房产价格下降,银行卖出的房产收入将不能抵偿当初借出的成本,由于银行无法收回足够的成本,因而无法偿还金融机构,金融机构也不能偿还投资者。因此银行、金融机构、投资者相继亏损,由于杠杆使用的很大,因此银行纷纷倒闭,金融机构纷纷倒闭,由于金融机构倒闭,股票、债券等一系列市场也纷纷受到阻碍,美国金融危机开始发生,最后蔓延全球。



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